Feb
15
Ending Losing Streaks
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
One trainer and one jockey ended prolonged losing streaks on Wednesday.
Gary Mandella saddled his first winner of the meet when French invader SWEET TRAVEL took the 3rd race over unlucky favorite THEVERYTHOUGHTOF U. Mandella ended a zero-for-24 skein after running second four times at the meet.
Tyler Baze, who incidentally rode (to use that term loosely) THEVERYTHOUGHTOF U, finally busted out of his 0-for-30-something streak (one for 70-something) when first-time starter READY MAID romped home in the 5th. As I mentioned in Saturday’s posting, Baze has been terrible lately but I had no idea that his losing streak had reached such proportions.
Victor Espinoza won a pair, one aboard sharp JUST A TWITT, who paid quick dividends off the Monteleone claim and was tagged out of the race by Bob Hess, Sr. Espinoza still trails leading man Gomez by 11 winners (50-39).
COBALT BLUE returned to the races in smart style, scoring from slightly off the pace for owner Merv Griffin and trainer Doug O’Neill in the 2nd race. The son of Golden Missile acts like he wants to run long but it seems too late in the going to get on the Kentucky Derby Trail. O’Neill has had big-time success in races like the WinStar and Indiana derbies, so perhaps that’s the path ‘BLUE will take.
Art Sherman on SIREN LURE, who will run in Saturday’s San Carlos: “He’s got to sit and make one run, and it would help if he could save some ground,†Sherman said. “You’ve got to save ground around the turn. You can’t be four and five wide and give another horse that many lengths. You’ve got to ride a heads-up race. I rode for 23 years and if you’re wide turning for home, that can mean five lengths. You can’t keep riding the same kind of race and get the money when it’s going to be close. I think racing luck and riding a good race is going to be a big factor.†Pretty good explanation of why Migliore will be taking over for Solis.
In Sunday’s post, I noted that the O’Neills claimed SLOW N EASY off Ron Ellis. There was a three-way shake for the horse, which explains a lot. Claiming off friends is kosher when you know there are other claims in for that horse.
Racing lost a good friend with the passing of Trudy McCaffery. Owner, breeder, horse enthusiast, member of the Oak Tree board, supporter of Kids to the Cup. She will be missed.
To view a Free Sample of yesterday’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 14
Feb
12
Rainy Day Schedule
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
Yesterday’s early morning rain wiped out the two turf races (2nd and 4th races), which were probably the most interesting races on the card, at least from a gambling perspective. Although there were two stakes races on the card, let’s face it, it was pretty boring out there. Here’s a quick recap:
2nd race–Turf to dirt as only a field of five remained. GRAND POINT followed up his maiden score with an easy victory over a weak bunch. The next level will be a whole lot tougher.
3rd race–I liked AUGMENT a lot going in (he was the Free Pick of the Day on my website) but he was life and death as Gomez carried him home. He appeared to be going nowhere on the far turn but Gomez just kept riding until the Gallagher-trained gelding finally prevailed in the final 70 yards. Talk about a rider making the difference.
4th race–Guillot-trained first-time starter SOUTHERN INVASION (under Michael Baze) pulled off the upset in the first leg of the Pick Six. Odds-on favorite ASCARI couldn’t have run worse, hanging badly through the lane. I know he had never been on dirt before but he’s a bum–dirt or turf.
6th race–SLOW N EASY overcame a slow n easy start to win first off the claim for Ellis (had been a Danny V). Heavy favorite and suspicious dropper OUT OF COAL was eased through the lane. Interesting sidenote: in the winner’s circle after the race were Dennis O’Neill’s kids, who are friends with the Ellis kids. Amy Ellis was one of Tammy O’Neill’s (Dennis’ wife) bridesmaids . Guess who claimed ‘EASY? That’s right, Doug O’Neill with Dennis listed as one of the owners. Interesting game we play.
7th race–NOBLE COURT won the San Vicente in all-out style over LAW BREAKER. We weren’t impressed. Slow time, visually unimpressive, low-rated heat.
8th race–BALANCE got back on the winning track by taking the La Canada over a very weak Grade 2 field. BAI AND BAI tried her best but wasn’t good enough in finishing second.
9th race–Dropper SUPERSTAR JUSTIN dominated in the finale. Don’t know what his issues are but he looked like he was worth the money for new trainer Becerra.
Two other observations: the Peter Miller barn has really cooled off lately. And should have mentioned how bad Tyler Baze was yesterday, particularly his ride on RED NECK GAL (4th race) and not much better on HERE COMES RAY RAY (1st). Expect the O’Neill barn to start using a different Baze–Michael–much more in the future.
Thanks to a couple of readers who answered my question about Saturday’s 6th race winner ABALANCHE being a “Bi-Lateral Crytorchid”. It basically means that the horse has undescended testicles (did not drop from his abdomen) and is not fertile. Â
See you on Wednesday.
To view a Free Sample of yesterday’s Premium Plays, click on the line below: Premium Plays for Feb. 11
Feb
11
More Questions than Answers
Filed Under Uncategorized | 1 Comment
I worked at home yesterday and watched races on the computer, so I really don’t have much clue as to what happened in some instances.
I do know that RAGS TO RICHES is a rising star. The $1.9 A. P. Indy filly had everything against her yet still won the Las Virgennes. She was stepping up to meet Grade I company off a maiden win; she was trying two turns for the initial time; she was stuck outside (eight post) going a flat mile. Despite losing tons of ground on both turns, she still ran down loose-on-the-lead BARONESS THATCHER under hot-riding Garrett Gomez. The time wasn’t fancy but she acts like something special…make her the early favorite for the Kentucky Oaks.
Give credit to Michael “Whitey” McCarthy, whose 45 days in the sun as a head trainer are now over with the return of Todd Pletcher. He has done a great job with Pletcher’s West Coast string and puts a Grade I win on his resume. Congratulations.
In the other Grade I, the Santa Maria Handicap, SUGAR SHAKE was handed an easy lead when speedy SEAFREE broke in the air and lost all chance. ‘SHAKE took advantage of very soft splits to post her second stakes win of the meet for Bobby Frankel, who is inching closer to Charlie Whittingham’s all-time win mark at Santa Anita.
Three more winners for Gomez (48 for the meet, 12 in front of nearest “rival”) and two for Richard Migliore. That means super agent Ron Anderson batted .500 yesterday as his two jocks won five of the 10 races on the card.
A note at the bottom of the program read that maiden winner ABALANCHE (6th race) is a Bi-Lateral Cryptorchid. I’ve never heard the term and tried looking it up in the dictionary. Does anyone have a clue what that term means?
Watching the Risen Star from Fair Grounds on computer was quite an adventure. NOTIONAL looked good but it was impossible to tell how much trouble CIRCULAR QUAY encountered behind the fallen horse. I will watch it again on RaceReplays.com, but what was your opinion?
As the title says, more questions than answers this time around.
We finally got that rain that had been forecast for the last few days. It’s raining at Santa Anita on Sunday morning, so I would fully expect races 2 and 4 to come off the turf. Good luck today.
To view a Free Sample of yesterday’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 10
Feb
10
Calm Before the Storm?
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
Not much to report from today’s lackluster card. After so many good ones through the first six weeks of the meet, we were due for some modest weekday cards. And that’s what we got today.
Eight different jockeys and trainers scored victories today.
On the horse front, I thought there were three notable wins: VOTSI (4th race) broke her maiden in impressive style for Neil Drysdale. The 4-year-old filly trailed early, made a swooping 4-wide move on the far turn (which is particularly difficult when the rails are out 30 feet), then continued her run through the lane to win going away. JACK’S KID (5th race) continued his razor-sharp form by defeating good horses like WIND WATER, GRINDING IT OUT and DATTICUS with a fast, perfect-trip tally. Bob Hess has done an excellent job with this 5-year-old gelding. And RED DIADEM (7th race) shortened up in distance and obviously took to the downhill layout with a sharp victory in 1:12.3. She won going long on Cushion Track at HP but might have found her calling as a turf sprinter.
Two very competitive Grade I’s tomorrow with the Santa Maria going as the 7th race on the card and the Las Virgennes going as the 9th. Bobby Frankel has cross entered SUGAR SHAKE in Sunday’s La Canada but word is that she will run tomorrow.
Hope we can keep the rain away.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 9
Feb
9
Pride of Ownership
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
There must be something magical about working in the publicity office of the Santa Anita press box. First, PR Director Mike Willman’s MCCANN’S MOJAVE wins the $1 million Sunshine Millions Classic a couple of weeks ago. Now today, Willman’s right-hand man, Jack Disney, gets another win with ON THE ACORN for his Indizguys Stable. The six-person partnership includes former Angels manager Buck Rodgers and Hall of Fame baseball writer Ross Newhan (L.A. Times), among others. It was great to see how excited this group was to be winning owners. Disney, a former Herald Examiner sportswriter who is well-liked and well-respected by everyone, was beaming in his post-race interview on HRTV.
Claimed for $40,000 three races back and gelded by new trainer Mike Mitchell, ON THE ACORN ran poorly first time when pressing the early pace. Reunited with Brice Blanc and taken far back next time, ‘ACORN won a desperate photo vs. optional claimers. But today’s win was something special. Last off a slow pace and encountering traffic trouble a couple of times, ‘ACORN got through on the rail, angled outside pacesetter A. P. EXCELLENT, then blew past that one for a very impressive victory. Next stop looks like the San Luis Obispo on Feb. 25. Don’t underestimate the karma that is coming out of that publicity office.
As a side note, two other members of the publicity staff were five-for-five on a $16 Pick Six ticket today. However, they had to settle for second with WAILEA GIRL in the finale and collected a measly $154 consolation instead of the $12,000 and change winner’s share had ‘GIRL gotten there. Still, I think I want to move my seat into that office for the rest of the meet.
Two winners for Martin Pedroza as eight different trainers scored today.
The SHOWVIVOR contest that began with 4,005 entrants is now down to six heading into tomorrow’s card.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 8
Feb
8
Gelded 10 Minutes Before Post?
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
It happened again today. As the horses were in the walking ring for the 8th race, Trevor Denman made the announcement that BORN TO COMMAND was racing as a gelding. I believe he worded it as a “regular” gelding (meaning there was a mistake in the program) but after checking my old programs, that, too, was a mistake. ‘COMMAND raced as a colt in his most recent start on Oct. 6. In Sunday’s 2nd race, the late announcement was made that ARE YOU POSITIVE had been gelded since his last start. As handicappers know, this “equipment” change (known as the Ultimate Equipment Change) can be instrumental in turning around a horse’s form.
It is simply unacceptable that this continues to happen. Wagering has started. Rolling, multi-race bets are in full swing. Whether it’s the trainer at fault for not reporting or the racing office for screwing up the paperwork, someone needs to be held accountable. My first thought is that the horse should be automatically scratched, regardless of who’s at fault. If it’s the trainer, fine him $1,000. If it’s the racing office, suspend that worker without pay for a few days. After each of those happen one time, guess what? You will never have the problem again.
I’m told by CHRB spokesman Mike Marten that this issue will be addressed at the next board meeting on Feb. 21. Also, according to Marten, the board will never go for the idea of scratching a runner simply because of the late announcement. Along with Bob Mieszerski of the L.A. Times, I have been asked to speak on behalf of horseplayers at that meeting. I would love input from readers on possible solutions and remedies to the problem prior to going before the Board. Count that runner as an automatic “winner” in rolling bets, no matter where it finishes? Include in consolation payoffs for daily doubles and Pick 3′s? I have some ideas but want to come to the meeting armed and ready as I get the opportunity to speak for the betting public. Please post your ideas and comments!
Today, two winners for David Cohen, who, as we mentioned earlier, has parted ways with agent Nick Cosato. Little Nick will take over for Michael Baze, so look for that rider to get an opportunity with some of the bigger barns (aka Doug O’Neill).
Both Pick 4′s paid huge overlays today. The early Pick 4 returned $585, more than twice the parlay of $268. And the late Pick 4 paid $1,121, nearly twice the parlay of $565. There is still great value in this wager, especially with decent field size.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 7
Feb
5
Gomez Domination
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
Sometimes a rider gets into such a groove that he makes it look all too easy as he dominates his competition. That is what’s happening right now at Santa Anita, as Garrett Gomez appears to be toying with the riding colony, coming from behind with perfect timing to seemingly win every photo at the wire.
Today, for example: 2nd race, Gomez rallies a spent YMUSTICHASETHECAT back along the inside to run down even more exhausted runners for a half-length victory. 4th race, he prevails with a lugging in, won’t-change-leads 3-year-old for Baffert named AIR COMMANDER (who is not much, by the way). 6th race, rallies from well off the pace to bring home favorite BLUES STREET as he runs by the leader in the final stages. 8th race, he picks up the mount on MOLENGAO (Victor Espinoza was injured earlier in the day when he bailed off BARDY WOMAN, who broke down going into the first turn of 3rd race), then gets that one up late to nail BALL FOUR in the final jump. Why Julien Leparoux never went to the whip on the runner-up is anyone’s guess, but that’s another story. Gomez’s stats: four winners and an unlucky second aboard STRONG FAITH, who might have won the 3rd race with a better trip. He’s in a zone right now and the jockey race is turning into a one-man show.
Agent Nick Cosato has parted company with David Cohen. He will start representing another rider in the very near future, a young guy who has a lot of upside. More on this when it becomes official. Â
Three trainers are tied at the top with 15 winners: John Sadler, Bob Baffert and Doug O’Neill. O’Neill got off to a slow start but is picking it up lately and probably has too many bullets not to win another title.
I ended an excellent week of handicapping by picking the first six winners ($32.60 in mutuel returns) on today’s card. I had grandiose ideas of the elusive “sweep” but couldn’t find any of the last three winners.
Services for Kellie Cerin will be held at 5:30 p.m. Wednesday at Church of the Good Shepherd, 400 W. Duarte Road in Arcadia.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 4
Â
Feb
4
Quick Thoughts
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
Quick thoughts on Saturday’s coast-to-coast racing:
Really liked the way RAVEL won the Sham Stakes, going 1 1/8 miles in 1:48.4, just a tick slower than 4-year-old ARSON SQUAD’s winning time in the Strub. RAVEL is a $950,000 son of Fusaichi Pegasus that has won both of his route races on the West Coast for Pletcher/McCarthy. He might be a serious Derby contender if he keeps moving forward.
SWEET RETURN ended a long losing streak by wiring his foes in the Thunder Road. He got things his own way and dug in gamely when it looked like BAYEUX was going by. By the way, what was Garrett Gomez doing on favorite CHARMO, moving way prematurely to press the winner into the far turn. I know ‘RETURN was walking on the front end but the leading reinsman completely took CHARMO out of his game.
ARSON SQUAD got the best trip and took the Strub against a very ordinary group of 4-year-olds. BROTHER DEREK again was well-bet but had no excuse when finishing in a photo for second, and MIDNIGHT LUTE flattened out after a wide trip. He doesn’t want to run nine furlongs. LAVA MAN has absolutely nothing to worry about if anything from this group is heading to the Big Cap.
Gomez won three, Gryder two. Trainer Doug O’Neill had two wins with cheapies but finished second in the big ones (LIQUIDITY and SPRING AT LAST).
At Gulfstream Park, INVASOR was awesome winning the Donn, overcoming traffic trouble and getting stopped at the top of stretch before rallying strongly along the rail to blow away his overmatched competition. He is one nice racehorse.
NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ won as expected in the Holy Bull but he still has a tendency to lug in through the lane. Shouldn’t he have outgrown that habit by now? This grand-looking colt looks the part but is his lugging in more than just a bad habit?
First post at 11:00 a.m. for Super Bowl Sunday card.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 3
Feb
3
Sad Week
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
This has been a sad week in racing–for both horse and human. First, BARBARO was put down after his lengthy battle. Then shocking news today that Kellie Cerin, wife of trainer Vladimir Cerin, died while the couple was on vacation in Mexico. Details are conflicting–I’ve heard three different accounts–but she died last night in a apparently freak accident. My condolences to the Cerin family.
Another Pick Six carryover (12th of the meet) into Saturday’s excellent 10-race card. With double digit winners in four of the P6 races, and only one winning favorite, no wonder there is $123,000 up for grabs on Strub Day.
The early Pick 4 paid a whopping $20,483 and the late Pick 4 came back at $4,333.
Jose Valdivia won a pair ($19 and $28 winners) and Alex Solis got a win aboard impressive OLD THUNDERÂ in the 7th. Unfortunately ‘THUNDER wasn’t able to make it back to the winner’s circle and had to be vanned off after the race. REDSTONE ARSENAL got the money for the always dangerous Avila-Berrio team. To say that this horse wasn’t persevered with last time would be an understatement.
Sophomore COURT THE KING (first-time gelding) was an impressive winner in the 5th. He got kind of a setup but went by the leaders in good style. TENFOLD isn’t improving but MARGENOT has upside despite tiring to third. He had missed some time and was stretching out around two turns after his debut win sprinting.
Great card in Florida tomorrow, showcashing INVASOR and NOBIZ LIKE SHOWBIZ in their respective races.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 2
Feb
2
Sarge Scores a Double
Filed Under Uncategorized | Leave a Comment
Nick “Sarge” Hines has had a slow start to the meet but scored a training double today with favorite C. T. ZEE ($6.00) in the 3rd race and bomber DIXIE’S RULER ($53.40) in the 6th. Sarge was low-key in winning with the first and more logical of his two winners but came unraveled when the Martin Pedroza expertly got home the second winner. Hines hugged and kissed everyone within sight, including HRTV host Scott Hazelton. For all his hyperbole (especially when the TVG cameras are on), Hines is a good guy. I’ve known him since his days as an assistant for Bob Hess and I take full credit for coming up with the nickname “Sarge”. In those days, he had a buzzcut and was so fit and trim he looked like an Army recruiting poster.
But here’s the skinny:Â I liked DIXIE’S RULER. I picked him second in my Graded Handicap (why didn’t I have the huevos to put him on top?) and suggested him as a Win Bet on my Premium Plays. He had a brutal trip last time, stopped dead cold at the 1/4-pole to lose all momentum, then he actually tried to re-rally through the lane. Route-to-sprint. Wide-open race. Sometimes all the tape watching does pay off.
Huge day for Garrett Gomez, knocking down four winners as he increased his lead over Victor Espinoza to 36-31. Gomez is in a groove–no one else on this circuit even comes close right now.
In Friday’s Form, Alex Solis says he would like to ride for another 10 years. With rides like he put up on GENERAL BUENO in the 1st, Solis should instead think about riding for another 10 days. He had effectively eliminated his mount’s chances (guzzled early, angled wide) by the time they hit the first turn. Solis is one of the nicest guys in racing but let’s face it, he is a shadow of his former self. He rides like a guy who has taken one too many bad spills–and the trainers have picked up on it. He rides just a few horses each day and not many live ones at that.
I hit the Pick 4 for $370 ($72 ticket) on my Premium Plays but had opportunities to hit one out of the park. I had two horses in the 7th and three in the 8th but got short-priced favorites in both legs.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Feb. 1
NOTE: Anyone reading all the way to the bottom will be offered Friday’s Premium Plays for FREE. Simply email me at bob@bobikepicks.com and type FREE PREMIUM PLAYS on the subject line. I will then email you the selection sheet after 9:00 a.m. (Pacific)