Apr
22
Santa Anita Wrap Up
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Mercifully, the marathon Santa Anita meet is over. Not that I have anything against Santa Anita. It’s one of the great sports venues in the world, run by good people, with quality racing. But racing nearly four months in the same place is just too much for me. It’s human nature to get stagnant, going to the same place, seeing the same people, carrying out the same routine every day. We’ve written time and time again about too much racing on a year-round calendar, but there almost needs to be a one-week intermission during this meeting. Now one could say we got that and more with the 11 cancellation days, but not really. Entries continued to be drawn almost every day during that time, with constant uncertaintly and many (if not most) cancellations announced the morning of the cancelled card. It’s not like horsemen, fans or handicappers ever got a chance to take a scheduled break and refresh. In fact, by adding three extra Wednesday cards, it actually added to everyone’s workload, essentially turning an already ponderous 85-day meet into 88 days.
The early part of the meet could not gain momentum but things picked up in the last month. Santa Anita Derby Day drew over 50,000 on-track fans. The last couple of weekends saw lively on-track attendance and good racing, although for the meet attendance was down 5% on-track and much worse at simulcast sites. On-track handle decreased 7% on track and 13% at simulcast sites, but showed an overall increase of 2% due to strong increases in Account Deposit Wagering, which was opened up to more ADW providers this season.
Highlights of the meet included the emergence of Rafael Bejarano as the leading rider, overtaking absent Garrett Gomez on the final day of the meet; Tyler Baze reestablishing his career with a strong third-place finish in the standings; Mike Mitchell winning the SA training title while taking down his second straight San Juan Capistrano with BIG BOOSTER (only 12 more to catch Charlie Whittingham); Carla Gaines enjoying a tremendous meet, racking up six stakes races and an incredible 11-for-15 win streak late in the meet; COLONEL JOHN storming home to win the SA Derby in the most exciting big race of the meet; and EVER A FRIEND turning in the most powerful performance of the season when destroying the Kilroe Mile field; two Corvettes given away to single-ticket Pick Six winners purchased on track; the first-ever $1 million ringer in the St. Pat’s horseshoe pitch; and the amazing sire Unusual Heat, whose progeny won an incredible 27 races during the meet.
Lowlights obviously included the 11 cancelled race dates; three makeup Wednesdays; and Monday racing, which is a total dud—zero atmosphere and totally anti-climactic after two good weekend days. Here’s my vote for going back to the regular Wednesday through Sunday schedule for next year. I was ambivalent in the beginning, feeling good about the fact that this year’s schedule would eliminate six-day race weeks (well, so much for that) but I’ll live with six day weeks in order to go back to the old calendar. And one final, pathetic lowlight. Patrick Valenzuela, who rode here on opening day, lost his provisional license on Dec. 28 after a DUI arrest. Worse, P.Val failed to appear in a pre-trial hearing, leading to an arrest warrant being issued on Mar. 26. He did finally appear in court on Thursday, three weeks after the warrant was issued. What a waste.
As for the status of Santa Anita’s main track going forward, there are three options, with a decision to be made in the next two weeks: keep the current Cushion Track/Pro-Ride concoction that worked well for the last 2 1/2 months; tear out the current surface and replace it with another synthetic; or go back to a traditional dirt track. In a meeting with 10 local trainers, track owner Frank Stronach told Larry Stewart of the L. A. Times that most of the trainers favored synthetic. “I personally prefer dirt, but the majority of horsemen I met with like synthetic. So I figure if we are this far into it, we should give a synthetic track another year or two, then make a change if we need to,” said Stronach.
But the current synthetic version, while seeming to be very safe on horses’ legs, is not without health concerns. We’ve written about the strong odor emitted by the track since chemicals were added during renovation in early February. The gate crew has gone to wearing surgical masks, also worn by jockey Corey Nakatani in post parade a couple of weeks back. Horn blower Jay Cohen, in perhaps not the best career move ever, told Art Wilson of the LANG newspapers, “I hate the stuff. It smells like kerosene. It stinks. I hate smelling it, but that’s just my opinion. If it’s safer for the horses, that’s the main thing.”
In one of the great behind-the-scenes meetings I’ve ever witnessed (watching from the press box), Stronach and track president Ron Charles went trackside following Saturday’s races to walk on and inspect the track. They were soon joined by trainer Bruce Headley, who is passionately pro-dirt, then later by Tapeta proprietor (and former trainer) Michael Dickinson. Dickinson, whose synthetic surface is currently used at Golden Gate (another Magna track), had made a lap around the track and returned to put on an over-the-top show of kicking the material off his shoes, then spending what seemed like an eternity scraping the stuff off his soles. Animated and with arms waving, Dickinson held his hands two feet apart, then narrowed the margin down to about six inches, apparently indicating to his audience that he believed the track was uneven in some areas. As one press box onlooker noted, “Headley looked at him like he [Dickinson] was a Martian.” It all made for great theater, with Dickinson giving an obvious sales pitch for the track to switch to his Tapeta.
NOTES: Trainer Walther Solis had a great meet with his 2-year-olds, winning five of the 2-furlong dashes…Saturday’s results were so tough that a Pick Six carryover was announced with two races still to be run. No one even had five winners that day…the track offered up a $200,000 guarantee on that day’s Super High 5 but wagering didn’t reach that amount, meaning SA had to make up the difference…in Sunday’s 7th race, Nakatani stood up a few jumps before the wire and blew second when riding MODIFICIATION. He told the stewards that the filly felt “funny” in the final strides, which is why he pulled up early. Modification was checked by the track vet after the race, with no obvious signs of lameness, and will be examined again. If she shows a problem, the filly will be placed on the vet’s list. If she checks out healthy, then Nakatani should be given a hefty fine and/or suspension for his lack of effort…congratulations to Bob Mieszerski for winning this year’s Allan Malamud handicapping contest, sponsored by the track. He blew me away in the final weeks and will receive a $3,000 check, half of which will be donated in his name to the Edwin J. Gregson Foundation…Ray Nelson won the money title (showing an incredible 12% flat-bet profit over the course of 698 races), and half of his award will be donated to St. Jude’s Children’s Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee.
Finally, I know it’s old news now, but GAYEGO was impressive in winning the Arkansas Derby and PYRO laid an egg in the Blue Grass. I still haven’t changed my Derby opinion: 1. Big Brown 2. Colonel John 3. Pyro
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Apr
11
Derby Picture Crystal Clear
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Heading into this weekend’s final major prep races—the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes—the Derby picture seems crystal clear to me. Unless there is a crazy “off” track or something completely flukey happens, this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will be one of the following three horses: BIG BROWN, COLONEL JOHN or PYRO. Period, end of discussion. All three are outstanding horses—talented, consistent and in good hands. Like a phrase from one of Trevor Denman’s calls, “It will take something totally unforeseen” for one of these three not to win on May 3.
We’ve written about Big Brown’s tour de force in the Florida Derby, and Pyro, who runs in the Blue Grass, has been scintillating in his two wins this year. Now add Colonel John to the mix. The Eoin Harty-trained son of Tiznow overcame some traffic trouble on the far turn, then got out at the top of the lane and powered home to win the Santa Anita Derby in 1:48. He made up about three lengths in the final 1/8th, meaning he ran his final furlong in about 12 seconds, which is outstanding. He galloped out strongly past the wire, suggesting he will adore the 1 1/4-mile Derby distance. I’m not saying these colts will run 1-2-3 at Churchill, but I will feel very comfortable keying my exotic bets around them, confident that one of them will win and at least one of the others will hit the board.
NOTES: Last Saturday was one of those days we like to refer to as a “Sensory Overload Saturday”. The day was loaded with 14 graded stakes from around the country, including five Grade I’s and three Derby preps. Here’s a recap, starting with the other two Derby preps: the Wood Memorial was ugly, with the leaders staggering home like drunken sailors. TALE OF EKATI finally got to the wire ahead of WAR PASS, who appeared to be cruising on the far turn, then took an awkward step when changing leads and struggled through the lane. Can’t like any of these heading to Churchill…the Illinois Derby was meaningless, with RECAPTURETHEGLORY going wire-to-wire from the rail in a race where no one changed position. Previously unbeaten DENIS OF CORK was terrible, never firing at all. Scratch these seven from consideration…at Oaklawn, ZENYATTA remained unbeaten, rallying strongly from far back to crush last year’s Eclipse Award-winning mare GINGER PUNCH in the Apple Blossom. The huge daughter of Street Cry got a late start to her career but she’s simply a monster. TIAGO completed a huge day for the Moss-Shirreffs-Smith team when he outgamed HEATSEEKER an hour later in the Oaklawn Handicap, a race which certainly flatters the Big Cap…at Keeneland, the big matchup between COUNTRY STAR and PROUD HOPE fizzled when neither fired and longshot LITTLE BELLE took the Ashland. I’m starting to think nothing that happens over the Keeneland Polytrack matters…on the local front, trainer Carla Gaines is in the midst of an incredible run, winning with 11 of her last 15 starters (including six in a row at one point). Gaines sent out full-sisters TIZ ELEMENTAL and TIZ A BLEND to win back-to-back stakes on Sunday…for the third straight year, Santa Anita drew over 50,000 for its Derby day card.
Finally, we’ve harped on this before but nothing ever seems to change. On a day like last Saturday, when fan interest is at its peak and gamblers want to wager on (and WATCH) the biggest races, we once again stood by helplessly as the horses loaded simultaneously for the Wood and Ashland, both races starting at nearly identical times. Impossible to watch both at the same time, fans were forced to choose between the two. If the NTRA would do this one small thing, racing would be so much better off: mandate post times, particularly for major races, so fans/gamblers have a chance to enjoy the biggest events…it is such a simple concept but apparently too difficult to grasp for those in charge.
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Apr
3
Curlin, Dutrow Kings of the World
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Horse or human, it’s hard to imagine either having better days than Curlin or Richard Dutrow had last Saturday. Of course CURLIN dominated his competition and earned the title Best Horse in the World in winning the Dubai World Cup at Nad Al Sheba racetrack, while trainer Richard Dutrow won two of the undercard races in Dubai and the Florida Derby with freakish BIG BROWN.
First about Curlin. After a remarkable 3-year-old campaign that culminated in Horse of the Year honors, he was shipped to Dubai early in order to run in a Feb. 2 prep race over the desert course. He hardly broke a gallop that day and was tuned up perfectly by trainer Steve Asmussen (and assistant Scott Blasi) for the Big One. He stalked from his outside post and burst away when set down by Robby Albarado after the field straightened away at the top of the stretch. The winning margin was a record 7 3/4 lengths while winning in a time of 2:00.15, third-fastest of 13 World Cups. If Curlin isn’t a great horse already, he’s getting very close. He will join the pantheon of greats if he can come back home and have a dominating second half of the year, especially after the long and grueling trip to the Mideast.
Now about Dutrow. Has any trainer in history ever had a better day? First a win by DIAMOND STRIPES in the $1 million Godolphin Mile, followed 75 minutes later by BENNY THE BULL running down IDIOT PROOF in the $2 million Golden Shaheen sprint. As if that wasn’t enough, BIG BROWN ran to the hype (or shut up the skeptics, depending on how you look at it) with his tour de force in the $1 million Florida Derby. Drawn in the 12-hole, with only two previous starts under his belt (including an off-the-turf allowance win against four overmatched foes 24 days earlier), ‘BROWN was the wise guys’ “bet against” horse of the year. After a clean break and some early hustling from Kent Desormeaux, ‘BROWN was in the 2-path before hitting the backstretch and simply toyed with the field, winning off by five lengths in 1:48.16, just .37 off the track record. So, in a five-hour span, Dutrow-trained horses took down $4 million in purses. (I always like to do the math in these situations: let’s see, assuming the winners’ share was 60%, and the trainer gets 5% of that, Dutrow grossed a cool $240,000 on the day.)
As for the Kentucky Derby in four weeks? Unless COLONEL JOHN or EL GATO MALO come up with huge efforts in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby (Georgie Boy is out with a muscle pull if you hadn’t heard), this might be the coldest two-horse Derby in memory. Big Brown or Pyro, Pyro or Big Brown…no one else comes close.
NOTES: Wrapping up Dubai: another tough beat for California-bred IDIOT PROOF, who ran a huge race but was run down by the ‘BULL in the late stages, reminiscent of his runner-up try to MIDNIGHT LUTE in the BC Sprint…whose idea was it to put SPRING HOUSE on the lead in the Sheema Classic? After finally learning to relax for trainer Julio Canani and coming off a sharp win in the San Luis Obispo at SA, ‘HOUSE inexplicably was the Sheema pacesetter. Who knows how he would have fared against this tough field, but he had no chance given the strategy.
I like the recently approved CHRB rule change that protects a horse returning from a 180-day layoff or more (and returning for a claiming price equal to or higher than its last race) from being claimed. Any owner/trainer that has turned out a horse, shown the patience and paid the bills, deserves “claim free” status in that first race back…the board also approved a rule that would fine trainers $1,000 or the scratch of a horse that has not been properly reported as a first-time gelding. We started pushing for that rule months ago, so it’s nice to see it finally happen. Now if we can just get proportional payoffs for dead-heats in Pick 4 and Pick 6 races, and consolation payoffs (Pick 4) in the event of a scratched horse, all would be right in the parimutuel world. Oh, did I mention a stop to the late odds drops that continue to erode the confidence of bettors?
Finally, it looks like The Derby restaurant in Arcadia has replaced Madison Square Garden as the home for championship-caliber fights. Months ago we reported on trainer Jennie Green’s table-turning tirade at the upscale restaurant. Last Sunday night, jockey Alex Solis apparently followed suit with some unseemly anctics, including reportedly breaking a window of his wife’s car. Solis took off his two mounts on Monday due to “illness” but was plenty healthy enough to participate in an HRTV segment following the races which included, among other topics, Solis toasting and promoting his new wine. Why do I have a feeling the vino may have had something to do with the previous night’s dustup?
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Mar
24
March Madness Break
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I am out of town this week—Vegas and Arizona.
Will be home late Wednesday night and will catch up on the blog when I return.
In the meantime, good luck on horses and hoops.
By the way, I love Louisville (-2) over Tennessee on Thursday. I will stick with West Virginia (-1) vs. Xavier, and would take a small shot with Michigan St. (+5) against Memphis on Friday.
Released on last Saturday’s Thoroughbred Los Angeles radio show: West Virginia and Xavier, so I’m two-for-two so far this tournament.
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Mar
16
Three Derby Preps
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With three big Derby preps from around the country, today was supposed to give us a clearer picture of this year’s Triple Crown contenders. Would juvenile champion WAR PASS continue his dominance and toy with six overmatched foes in the Tampa Bay Derby? Would Z FORTUNE, second to Pyro in their last meeting, justify his odds-on price in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park? And how would three talented sprinters fare as they stretched out around two turns in the San Felipe at Santa Anita?
First, WAR PASS was a giant bust, fading to last after a compromising trip at Tampa. After getting pinched at the start, the Nick Zito-trained speedball was forced to sit behind horses for the first time and clearly resented it. He pulled behind the leaders while 3-wide on the first turn, had to be asked hard on far turn, then was completely spent by the 1/4-pole. There was some post-race noise about him having a fever or being less than 100%. If true, then why did he run? If not true, he was exposed as a need-the-lead type who won’t run his race unless he can control proceedings up front. Z FORTUNE wasn’t a whole lot better in Arkansas. Mid-pack while racing wide from his outside post, the Steve Asmussen-trained colt tried to rally 4-wide on the far turn but came up empty in the lane—another who was exposed as a less than top-flight colt. The Rebel winner was Cal-bred SIERRA SUNSET, conditioned by Bay Area trainer Jeff Bonde. The best of the three races came at Santa Anita where GEORGIE BOY overcame a challenging trip to storm home and defeat GAYEGO and BOB BLACK JACK, both of whom were making their first starts routing after showing excellent ability in sprints. The pace was creepy-crawly (:24.1, :48.3, 1:13) as ‘GEORGIE sat behind the other two, had to wait for room on the far turn, bulled his way out at the head of the stretch, ducked in at mid-stretch, then stormed home outside to win going away under Michael Baze, who was filling in for the injured Rafael Bejarano. He ran his final 1/16th in under six seconds and left little doubt he can get a distance. My only knock on his performance was that he didn’t change leads until after the finish but, as Gary Stevens suggested on HRTV, perhaps he was moving too fast to change leads at that point. Had Baze stuck him left handed with the whip instead of staying with right-handed urging, perhaps he would have switched leads sooner. As for the runners-up, they’ll never get softer trips than today.
NOTES: Bejarano, who went down in a freakish incident in Thursday’s finale, will be out 2-4 weeks with two cracked vertebrae. His mount, who was being eased after dropping back suddenly, collapsed of an apparent heart attack just inside the 1/8th-pole, throwing Bejarano head first into the ground. The 25-year-old rider had been on a tear, winning 12 races in four days to take a 60-51 lead over Garrett Gomez in the jockey standings…for the first time ever, someone threw a ringer today in Santa Anita’s annual St. Patrick’s (a couple of days early) horseshoe pitch, collecting a cool million. Let’s hope SA bought an insurance policy on the contest, but who knows the way this meet has gone for the track…a downpour hit right before Saturday’s finale, complete with hail, thunder and lightning. Blame it on global warming, everyone else does. (Side note to Al Gore: please let us know when this global warming deal is going to kick in. It’s been one of the harshest winters—all over the world—in memory.)…the bridgejumpers plunged again when War Pass went down the tubes. Show prices were $25, $27 and $76 on the top three…last weekend at SA: NASHOBA’S KEY got back on the winning track when reuniting with Gomez and switching back to synthetic, taking the Santa Margarita in fine style…MONZANTE looked like a monster in winning a small stakes. I’ll make him the early favorite for this year’s Hollywood Gold Cup…ARIEGE switched from turf to take the SA Oaks as Frankel’s third stringer.
Hoops and Horses: It’s that time of the year again, with March Madness starting next week. Have you ever noticed the link between basketball people and horse racing? The list of past and present college coaches who love horse racing could fill a room. And with horse people attracted to basketball? I went to the first night of the Pac 10 tournament at Staples Center and ran into a track announcer, a bloodstock agent, a clocker, a jock’s agent, two prominent owners and a couple racing officials. But thanks to my buddy Brian Ferguson, we trumped them all with awesome courtside seats. Doesn’t get any better than that.
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Mar
6
Snakebit Santa Anita
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You would think that after all the trouble with its synthetic track and 11 racing days cancelled, Santa Anita would be due for a little bit of luck. That after gorgeous weather all week leading up to Saturday’s Big Cap, we wouldn’t wake up to a cold, dreary and drizzly day for one of the track’s two marquee days. But that’s exactly what happened, as if The Man Upstairs is not going to cut any slack to The Great Race Place this season as it suffers through one setback after another. The bright side is that 41,377 turned out anyway and witnessed an excellent 11-race card that included four stakes races. With a maximum of 14 horses going, this year’s Big Cap was one of the better gambling races in its long history. MONTEREY JAZZ was sent off as the 7-2 favorite but four others were listed between 5-1 and 7-1, the price on eventual winner HEATSEEKER. Add a couple of 10-1 shots and an 11-1 shot, and the top eight betting choices were not all that far apart in the wagering. After ‘JAZZ took hold of the bit and ran off to a huge 12-length lead after six furlongs, it was just a matter of which late-runner was going to win. HEATSEEKER got the jump on GO BETWEEN and held sway by a diminishing 3/4-length margin, with troubled CHAMPS ELYSEES a fast-closing third. After the top three, you can have everyone else in the race (although ‘JAZZ figures to come back and fight another day). TIAGO, plodder. AWESOME GEM, plodder. GREAT HUNTER, not the same horse. MEDICI CODE, turf horse. CELTIC DREAMIN, tossed in the first dull race of his career.
As for HEATSEEKER, he had been showing up lately but I wasn’t a convert. I couldn’t get out of my mind the horse whose only win in his first six U.S. starts for Bobby Frankel was via disqualification. Transferred to Jerry Hollendorfer after Del Mar, ‘SEEKER pulled off a 30-1 upset in the Native Diver at Hollywood Park, came up a head short in the San Antonio in his most recent start and had trained well into the Big Cap. He obviously was excelling at nine furlongs, so logic should have told me that he would love the 1 1/4-mile Big Cap distance. But I let past prejudice overrule current form—just another handicapping lesson along the way. And what a job by Hollendorfer, who can no longer be classified only as the King of Northern California. He has been a high-percentage performer since getting serious with his SoCal stock over the past couple of years, and not too many guys have moved up a horse on Frankel over the years.
The Big Cap was a good, competitive race but the perfomance of the day belonged to EVER A FRIEND, who turned in a jaw-dropping effort when destroying his opponents by nearly four lengths in the Kilroe Mile. Claimed by Mike Mitchell two races back for $62,500, ‘FRIEND has won both starts for his new connections and looks like a major player in the turf division. COLONEL JOHN and EL GATO MALO put on a good show in the Sham, with ‘JOHN handing ‘MALO the first defeat of his four-race career. Stalking a slow pace while getting a very soft trip, ‘JOHN was supposed to win given the trip but the runner-up lost nothing in defeat. Both figure to move on to the Santa Anita Derby.
NOTES: CURLIN made a successful return to the races, breezing home against outclassed rivals while getting a feel for the Nad al Sheba course in Dubai. He looks every bit the part of “best horse in the world”…Ral Ayers, assistant to suspended trainer Jeff Mullins, got on a roll this week, winning five races from Friday through Monday…speed has been holding well on turf, particularly in two-turn races…when favorite LOTACAT acted up in the gate and had to be scratched from Saturday’s final race, darkness had almost set in. With only a two-minute delay and the remaining horses not even unloaded from the gate, the quick takeoff caught everyone by surprise, including the television department and announcer Trevor Denman. There was still a graphic on the TV screen when the gates opened, causing viewers to miss the first couple seconds of the race. It also hurt the track’s bottom line, particularly in the Super High Five, where about $80,000 of the approximately $110,000 pool was tied up to the favorite and had to be refunded…there have been 17 Pick Six carryovers through 43 days of racing, with favorites winning at only a 25% clip…Chantal Sutherland is riding well but I’ve heard a number of people say that she would be a top-10 rider if she stayed on this circuit year-round. Really? Would you take her over any of the current top 10? Bejarano, Gomez, Flores, Tyler and Michael Baze, Solis, Garcia, Rosario, Talamo, Espinoza? Not to mention returning Nakatani, improving Quinonez, journeymen Gryder, Court, Smith, Valdivia, Migliore, Pedroza or even underrated Delgadillo? I sure wouldn’t. She’s a nice, solid rider who doesn’t make many mistakes and stays out of a horse’s way through the stretch run. But hardly a top-10 rider on this ultra-competitive circuit.Â
Disturbing Trend Department: When UNUSUAL JAIL won Thursday’s 7th race, the red flag went up. Claimed away from Brian Koriner by Jorge Periban (who was also listed as owner while winning a two-way shake) for $25,000 on Dec. 22, ‘JAIL made his next start up north for a different trainer, George Papaprodromou (reportedly good friends with Koriner). Adding to the shadiness, the new owner, Julie Berta, is one of Koriner’s clients. In another case of musical trainers, C R CAPER, who finished third in Saturday’s 5th race, was claimed by trainer Mike Puype for owner Bob Bone on Oct. 10 at Oak Tree. However, he somehow found himself back in original trainer Wesley Ward’s barn for his next start. I don’t know the back stories, so maybe these two examples are completely legitimate. But it seems worthwhile for the stewards to take a look—we don’t need any more cases like the one where Gus Headley claimed a horse off his father Bruce and we were supposed to believe there was no collusion between the two.
Finally, it was reported that Magna Entertainment Corp., the largest owner and operator of racetracks in North America (including SA), lost $113 million last year, running its total to over $500 million in losses since starting up in 1998. The company is over $500 million in debt and its stock trades at under $1 per share. I have no idea how the company will get out from under this debt. But everyday when I leave the track, I get a stark reminder of one costly idea, the brainchild of owner Frank Stronach. It’s the empty Horse Wizard lounge, which cost around a million bucks to build but generated pennies on the dollar and now sits empty, cordoned off with yellow crime-scene tape. Grim, to say the least.
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Feb
27
Carryover Central
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Last week I wrote that small field sizes at Santa Anita in the upcoming days would likely prevent any “Pick Six rollovers or big exotics scores with those type of paltry numbers”. Wrong. Despite short fields on Wednesday, no one hit the Pick Six, resulting in a carryover of more than $89,000 into Thursday’s card. Wednesday’s late Pick 4 returned slightly over $12,000. Thursday’s short fields produced another carryover, with $292,000 going into Friday’s card. Then on Friday there were 25 winning P6 tickets (returning over $45,000) before Saturday’s large fields produced another carryover into Sunday. The moral of the story? There is an assumption (by me and many others) that short fields will correspondingly result in short payoffs. But perhaps beating the obvious top one or two contenders in small fields results in exaggerated payoffs because of players’ natural reluctance to go deep in those races. Smaller Pick Six players are more likely to get involved on carryover days when the fields are shorter, believing they have a more realistic chance at competing with the big tickets, while possibly making an inflated score. We’ll see what happens in the next few days when horseplayers will be given a menu of embarrassingly short fields and low-quality racing. Aren’t you just salivating over Wednesday’s 60-horse card (59 betting interests), Thursday’s 59 entrants or Friday’s 63 entered runners? Who knows, maybe there is a score to be made after all.
FLIP FLOP: Have you ever seen so much flip-flopping as at this meet? I’ve noticed it with horseplayers who absolutely loved the synthetic tracks (particularly the Hollywood Park Cushion Track) but now have changed their tune to the point of vitriol now that Santa Anita’s version of Cushion turned out to be a disaster. Or with track management, which puts out one schedule for track repair, changes weeks, then adds and subtracts days to the point of complete confusion. We’re going to have Wednesday racing, we’re not going to have Wednesday racing (apparently the latest is that Santa Anita, seeing how the current horse population does not support six-day racing, will not be seeking additional Wednesdays for the upcoming condition book).
Now the latest from CHRB chairman Richard Shapiro on the possibility that Santa Anita may consider going back to a conventional dirt surface after its synthetic strip is torn up at the conclusion of the meet. Shapiro, who along with the Board mandated that synthetic tracks be installed at California’s major tracks by the end of 2007, is quoted in DRF: “If, at the end of the day, Santa Anita comes forward and said, ‘We’ve looked at the options and we believe for the safety of the horse and rider that we’ve got a plan to put in a dirt track on top of a good solid base,’ and they would put in a track that was safe, personally, I’m not totally opposed to that,” he said.
“I think we have to have an open mind. I think what you’ve seen, the synthetic tracks are successful, but clearly there are bumps in the road. I’m not favoring one or the other. I’m hoping that synthetic tracks are the answers. If there is a better option, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t listen to everything.”
I’m totally confused. So a mandate is a mandate unless a track doesn’t want to abide by that mandate? Bay Meadows negotiated a waiver since their days were numbered and they understandably did not want to invest millions on a surface that was going to be used for probably just one year. Del Mar wanted to put in Polytrack. But what about Hollywood Park, which likely did not want to invest millions on a surface that would have soon been paved over for condominiums if the real estate market had stayed hot. It seems that Santa Anita is now the tail that wags the dog, likely to get anything it wants from a Board that may be feeling remorse over a mandate that ultimately cost Santa Anita 11 racing days. The start-and-stop schedule has prevented any sort of momentum as The Great Race Place limps along through its most forgettable season since I began covering the races on a daily basis here in 1986.
To reiterate, my thoughts on the synthetic surfaces: From a gambling standpoint, Hollywood Park is my favorite track, largely due to the Cushion Track. I can’t speak for trainers (most of whom gave early positive reviews but now seem more divided on synthetics) regarding horse injuries but, to me, I see less horses breaking down during races. Field sizes had been up and Eastern outfits came West until the problems at Santa Anita discouraged some. Had Cushion Track makers put in a good surface in Arcadia, racing likely wouldn’t be having this discussion through 45-person synthetic panels. Most everyone would be happy, especially if Del Mar finds a way to “speed up” its Polytrack. I’m not ready to flip flop yet. I still think the positives of synthetic tracks can outweigh the negatives. Anything beats the rock-hard sealed surfaces we used to get during the rainy season, and horses were able to continue morning training through the rain last week. That wouldn’t have happened before.
Actually, my main concern is with the long-term health risks to horses and humans vis-a-vis the chemicals used in these tracks. I’m hearing that there is a groundswell of discontent from guys who work on the starting gate crew, patrol judges and others who work in close proximity to the surface. Since chemicals were added to alleviate the drainage problem, the track has taken on a strong odor, similar to the smell of hot tar used when a roof is being put on a house. As a personal aside, I spent 30 minutes trackside last Thursday when giving handicapping selections to a group of seniors at the Club Court area. The smell was somewhat overpowering and I left there with a splitting headache and the urge to wash my mouth out with Listerine. What happens if track workers (and horses) start coming down with strange illnesses in the next few years?
NOTES: The Big Cap is on Saturday, with an overflow field in prospect. Entries are being drawn at this moment, with a maximum of 14 able to run…I was very surprised that David Flores chose AWESOME GEM over MONTEREY JAZZ. Both are trained by Craig Dollase, but I never would have gotten off ‘JAZZ the way he won last time. Russell Baze, riding in his first Big Cap, will pick up the mount…Showvivor II starts tomorrow and I will resume giving out a selection on my website (under Free Pick of the Day)…Wednesday’s ontrack attendance of 1,990 is believed to be the lowest in the history of the track. In fact, SA didn’t break the 10,000 mark on either weekend day…through Sunday, favorites are winning at only 25% for the meet…Alex Solis looks rejuvenated out there. He won seven races last week (through Sunday), moving him into a tie for fourth place with 21 winners…congratulations to Richard Migliore, who was named this year’s winner of the George Woolf Memorial Award.
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Feb
19
Mondays Are “Dead to Me”
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In one memorable episode of the “Sopranos”, Tony utters this famous line about his evil but still-living mother: “I’m not defending her, she’s dead to me.” Well, that’s how I feel about Monday racing since the start of six-day race weeks at Santa Anita (or maybe it should be called Del Mar North): It’s dead to me.
From a business standpoint, I fully understand why Santa Anita needs to try to make up for the 11 cancelled days and attempt to recoup millions of dollars in lost revenue. But as one who has continually harped on the need for less racing—not more—I have decided on a self-imposed boycott of the extra day. And since I’m a traditionalist who liked the old Wednesday through Sunday format, that’s how I’ll approach things until we are back on a five-day-a-week schedule. Starting with yesterday’s races, no more trips to Santa Anita on Mondays (until Wednesdays are dropped); no gambling on Monday cards; no watching on HRTV or computer; no looking at results or watching the replay show. Total abstinence.
If racing wants to commit suicide through the slow death of overracing, who I am to stop it? Everyone in the industry knows we run too many dates, but those in leadership positions are not willing to make the first move in cutting back. While horse racing is a very tough game to figure out from a handicapping and wagering standpoint, there seems to be a very simple formula that works from a quality-of-product aspect: Less racing dates equals good racing; more racing dates equals bad racing.
Take a look at last week, for example. On Friday, 60 horses competed in the Pick Six races alone, producing a carryover of $93,552. On Saturday, 61 horses ran in Pick Six races, making for a double carryover of $420,093. And on Sunday, 67 horses (66 betting interests) ran in the the last six races on the card, making for a three-day carryover of more than $1.2 million into Monday’s holiday card. Now take a look at the upcoming three days, all eight-race cards: 69 TOTAL horses entered on Wednesday (featuring four maiden claiming races); 62 entered (60 betting interests) for Thursday (with four more maiden claimers); and 61 entered on Friday (three maiden claimers). After only one week of six-day racing, the damage to field size is already evident. So don’t expect any Pick Six rollovers or big exotics scores with those type of paltry numbers.
By the way, I heard a rumor someone hit the Pick Six on Monday. Guess I’ll find out when I get to the track on Wednesday.
NOTES: Big field sizes are largely responsible for the low percentage of winning favorites at this meet. With only one winning favorite on Friday, none on Saturday and two on Sunday, favorites are winning at under 25% so far…SURF CAT got back on the winning track by outrunning GREG’S GOLD in Saturday’s San Carlos. It probably didn’t matter, but why did Rafael Bejarano on lone speed JOHNNY EVES slow the pace down to a crawl? The advantage to a speed horse is completely lost when the rider guzzles him through ridiculously slow fractions…Tough Beat of the Year II (so far): There was one live Pick Six ticket to TURKISH VICTORY in Saturday’s last race but that poor soul lost a heartbreaker to 50-1 first-time starter TURBO FAN. How could you ever play the races again if you got beat an inch for $420,000 by a 50-1 shot?…CHEROOT ($58.80) gave me my best-priced winner in ages (maybe ever) when I picked him on top in my graded handicap and suggested him as one of my Best Plays on the Premium Play sheet. Great job by Martin Pedroza, who knifed his way through traffic to get up by a scant nose in taking the Daytona Handicap…congratulations to SA publicity director Mike Willman for putting on a great day honoring long-time L.A. sportscaster and racing personality Gil Stratton on Sunday…Bejarano has announced that he will stay in Southern Calfornia for the rest of the year, meaning he becomes top dog when Garrett Gomez goes back East…THE GREEN MONKEY has been retired, leaving a huge hole in the Pletcher barn. ‘MONKEY, who had been a disaster since the day he was named, did manage to win back $10,000 of his original $16 million purchase price…Edgar Prado got his 6,000th winner a week ago Sunday at Gulstream Park…P.Val still hasn’t started riding at the Fair Grounds yet, again delaying his arrival. Best of luck to his new agent down there…Jeff Mullins begins serving a 20-day suspension. His horses will run under the name of assistant Ral Ayers…the Holy Angels’ 7th and 8th graders have been installed as a 12-point favorite over the jockeys in their 41st annual meeting Thursday night (7:00 p.m. tipoff) at La Salle High. Word on the street is that coach Kurt Hoover’s job is in jeopardy unless he can get things turned around with his depleted troops. With one-man show Kent Desormeaux now riding back East and second-best player Corey Nakatani still injured, Hoover figures to have his hands full.
Finally, the CHRB has put together a panel to discuss synthetic surfaces tomorrow morning at Santa Anita. The problem? There are 45 people on the panel, ranging from trainers to jockeys to track operators to handicappers to vets to racing secretaries. Forty five people! It takes forever for three stewards to make a decision on a disqualification, so unless this panel is going to convene for the next week or so, good luck on getting anything accomplished in tomorrow’s meeting.
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Feb
13
Back to “Normalcy”
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On Saturday, after a one-week hiatus, racing at Santa Anita began again over the new “Cushion Track/Pro-Ride” surface. So far, so good. The renovated surface has played extremely fair while producing times that are much more in line with normal expectations. No more absurdly-fast world record times like Bob Black Jack’s 1:06.53. Horses won on the lead or from well off the pace, which is all horseplayers can ask for—a bias-free strip.
Ian Pearse, the Australian founder and president of Pro-Ride who was hired to fix the problematic Cushion Track, came up to the press box on Sunday for a brief Q&A. Pearse was extremely impressive, devoid of salesmanship and the normal fluff one would expect from someone whose business is selling his product to racetracks. His confidence in Pro-Ride, he explained, came from over 10 years of testing and refining the product. He even admitted that his company has been much more adept at that side of the business than actually going out and selling the product. He said that the new track requires very little maintenance (I did not see a harrow or water truck go over the track in three racing days) and should handle as much as 3-4 inches of rain in an hour. We’ll find out about drainage the next time it rains—which may be a while since the weather has been summer-like this week. Until then, let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope for more of what we saw the last three days.
NOTES: On Saturday, Santa Anita carded two of the weakest Grade I events you’ll ever see, along with the rescheduled San Antonio. DOUBLE TROUBLE took the four-horse Santa Maria and GOLDEN DOC A won the six-horse Las Virgenes for new owner Ron McCauley, who recently purchased the daughter of Unusual Heat for $800,000. Besides picking up the $150,000 winners share, McCauley now has a Grade I winner, which means he’s probably already “out” on his investment…WELL ARMED took the San Antonio field wire-to-wire as the older handicap horses take turns beating each other…Rafael Bejarano won four races on the day and just missed his fifth when finishing second on HEATSEEKER in the ‘Antonio…the real racing on Saturday was at the Fair Grounds, where PYRO moved to the head of the 3-year-old class with a devastating win in the Risen Star, closing from last behind slow fractions to blow by the competition…other winners on that card included GRASSHOPPER in the Mineshaft, DAYTONA (shipping from California for Dan Hendricks and Mike Smith) winning his fourth straight in the Fair Grounds Handicap, and champion INDIAN BLESSING remaining undefeated with a victory in the Silverbulletday…speaking of the Fair Grounds, Patrick Valenzuela did not start riding there on Friday as expected. According to his new agent, P.Val had some loose ends to tie up and couldn’t get there in time. More likely reason: he couldn’t make riding weight yet…it was announced that Oak Tree at Santa Anita has been awarded the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, making it the first track to host the event in two consecutive years. For more on this, see Steven Crist’s excellent column in Sunday’s DRF (http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=92159&subs=0&arc=0).
On Sunday, DAWN AFTER DAWN walked on the lead and took a very weak edition of the La Canada, and GEORGIE BOY was extremely impressive in taking the San Vicente. In his first start since the Del Mar Futurity, GEORGIE BOY stormed home off a slow pace to win in 1:20.01, racehorse time over the refurbished track. INGRID THE GAMBLER survived a stewards’ inquiry to win the Wishing Well but I’ve yet to talk to one person who agreed with the call. She came out about 30-40 yards before the wire to impede ROCKELLA, who was slowly making up ground before being bothered. In my opinion, it was going to be very close at the wire, so how could the stewards possibly determine that the foul didn’t affect the outcome?…a 3-year-old to watch out of Florida is HEY BYRN, who crushed a couple well-regarded colts in a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream. The son of Put It Back could be the real deal.
On Monday, longshots ruled, with the winners of races 3-6 paying $83.00, $34.40, $23.00 and $37.80 (the Pick 3 on races 3-5 paid $41,828 to one ticket). With Pick Six bettors pouring in $891,900 chasing a Pick Six carryover of more than $173,000, there were three horses covered in the last race, all paying off to single-ticket holders. In fact, one of the tickets (alive to EASTERN BORN) was purchased at Santa Anita, meaning that person would also receive a new Corvette. One of those covered, first-time starter ROAR OF EAGLES, overcame a terrible start and a very wide trip to romp home, giving the winning ticket holder (purchased at Los Alamitos) a life-changing score of $668,690…the Super High Five finally paid off big, with $121,172 going to two winners…by the way, the connections of ‘EAGLES had to be sick when Craig Lewis dropped a claim tag. The Cal-bred gelding is worth much more than $40,000…Leading riders Garrett Gomez, Rafael Bejarano and David Flores have won 84 of the 233 races (36%) at the meet, while taking 21 of the 36 stakes (58%).
Quote of the Year (so far): In an article by Larry Stewart in Monday’s L.A. Times, CHRB chairman Richard Shapiro is quoted as saying, “I think those 11 lost days [due to cancellations] were the best thing that could have happened…we’ve learned an awful lot.” If the quote is accurate and was taken in context, this is the most preposterous statement ever uttered. Best thing for whom? Santa Anita, which as I’ve reported is down $117 million in handle compared to last year? The owners, trainers and jockeys who were not able to earn a cent during those cancelled days? The vendors, clerks and everyone else who make a living through this business that were unable to work on those days? The connections of Sweetnorthernsaint, who shipped their horse out here for the Sunshine Millions but didn’t draw into the Classic, waited for the San Antonio (which was cancelled on Super Bowl Sunday), then finally got a chance to run in the rescheduled race 15 days after ‘Millions day? The horseplayers? Or how about all of us who are now stuck with six-day racing for the forseeable future? Yes, Mr. Shapiro, those 11 lost days really were the best thing that could have happened.
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Feb
7
Friday’s Cancellation Makes 11
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Santa Anita announced today that Friday’s races have been cancelled as repair work continues on its problematic Cushion Track. Tomorrow’s cancellation will bring the total to 11 days lost during the meet, exactly half the number of days that actually have been run. Now, a .667 success rate is good in baseball or the NBA, but not for a racetrack. Especially not for one of the premier tracks in America—one that had lost only eight previous days since its doors opened on Christmas Day, 1934.
Despite working almost round-the-clock (workers forced to stop at 1:00 a.m.—due to frost or complaints from neighbors, whichever you choose to believe—then start up again at 7:00 a.m.), the repair work apparently will not be completed by tonight, which was the deadline in order to have horses work out and test the surface before racing could be conducted again. With two Grade I races and the important San Antonio scheduled, as well as a Pick Six carryover of more than $181,000 in the pot, Saturday is an absolutely vital day to the track. For everyone’s sake, let’s hope the renovation is complete and we are back racing on Saturday.
I was curious to see just how devastating this has been to Santa Anita from a business standpoint, so I did research comparing this season to last year. Through Feb. 8 (tomorrow) we will have run 22 days and a total of 204 races. By Feb. 8, 2007, there had been 32 race days and 273 races, a total of 69 more races had been run by this time last year.
Total handle at this meet has been around $230 million. Through 22 dates last year, handle was about $236, a shortfall of about $6 million for this season. However, a closer look makes the losses even more catastrophic. Included in the ’08 total is Sunshine Millions Day ($14.96 million in total handle). Last year’s ‘Millions did not come until the 24th day of the meet, meaning its huge $20.35 million total is not even included in a corresponding 22-day comparison. When one adds up totals through Feb. 8, 2007 (those extra 10 racing days produced over $111 million in total handle), Santa Anita is down about $117 in total handle when compared to last year at this time. I repeat, $117 MILLION in lost handle, of which somewhere in the neighborhood of $111 MILLION can be attributed to this year’s cancellations. I sure hope the Cushion Track company has good lawyers and a hefty insurance policy behind it.
When the “new” Cushion/Pro-Ride track is up and running, what can we expect from a handicapping perspective? The new Pro-Ride fiber material that is being added to the original surface has more of a “Polytrack” look to it, sort of the color of ground-up asphalt. It is supposed to make for a “kinder and gentler” track, which will surely slow down the ridiculously fast surface that produced a world record time on ‘Millions Day. With very little information to go on (such as how horses are handling the surface in morning workouts), doesn’t handicapping on this new surface become a complete crap shoot? I mean, if this is a totally new surface, doesn’t previous form go right out the window? I’m going to tread lightly and treat handicapping the same way I did at the start of Del Mar last summer: Simplify everything. See which horses like the surface and which ones don’t. Stick with those “horses for courses” as “class” takes a back seat in the handicapping equation. Now, if earlier SA form holds up, great. Don’t worry about making any adjustments. But don’t be surprised if there are some significant form reversals in the upcoming weeks.
NOTES: Saturday—the last time we had live racing—was a huge day, with five consecutive stakes races carded. In order: CROWN OF THORNS thrust himself into the Derby picture with an authoritative victory in the Bob Lewis; PASSION outgamed ARIEGE in an exciting La Habra; INTANGAROO, the longest shot in the five-horse Santa Monica field, gave trainer Gary Sherlock his first Grade I victory when she hung a nose decsion on SOCIETY HOSTESS. Heavily favored HYSTERICALADY misfired badly and ran fourth, sending the bridgejumper(s) to an early grave and making for huge show payoffs; STORM MILITARY snapped back to top form with a strong victory in the Thunder Road; and MONTEREY JAZZ remained perfect around two turns with a huge win in the Strub. His dominating front-running performance had veteran observers comparing him to Precisionist and Siphon. Color him the early favorite for the Big Cap on March 1st…Russell Baze got win No. 10,000 on Friday at Golden Gate, powering home his mount to win a desperate three-horse photo. The fact that Baze hit this milestone on a $4,000 claimer is all the more apropos. Along with Laffit Pincay, has anyone ever ridden harder or been a better friend to the horseplayer? Baze joins South American rider Jorge Ricardo, who accomplished the feat on Jan. 9, as the only other rider to have won 10,000 career races…Horse of the Year CURLIN apparently will make his next two starts in Dubai, starting with a Feb. 28 prep race for the Dubai World Cup on Mar. 29…trainer Doug O’Neill had a starter test over the permitted level of bicarbonate (total carbon dioxide) last month. His horses will run out of the detention barn for a total of 60 days…note at the bottom of Sunday’s overnight: “ATTN HORSEMEN: The card from Friday, February 8 will be re-drawn on Sunday, February 10 and will be carded for Wednesday, February 13.” Let the madness of six-day racing begin!
Tough Beat of the Year (so far): There was one live Pick Six ticket going to SHEM TOV in Saturday’s final race, the only horse covered in the nine-horse field. The nose loss cost that single-ticket holder the all-burger, over $181,000. Plus a Corvette, if that ticket was purchased on track. Ouch.
Finally, just when you thought the troubled saga of Pat Valenzuela had come to an end, he has been named on a couple of horses for Friday’s races at the Fair Grounds in Louisiana. Officials there did not feel that reciprocity guidelines were in effect (meaning one state abides by another’s ruling) since he had not been sanctioned or ruled off in California. As I replied to a couple of inquiring emailers, this cat has more than nine lives.
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