Jan
11
They Don’t Pay for Four
Filed Under Uncategorized
One of the tough realities of playing the Pick Six is that it is a very low-percentage bet. You don’t go out and hit it everyday–or even once a week. Maybe once a month if you’re a semi-regular to daily player. But when there is a double carryover of more than $623,000 in the pool and two days off to freshen the brain and get fresh money, one is required to play. Well, that was the mentality today at Santa Anita, where $2.7 million in “fresh money” was bet, over four times more than the carryover pool. In fact, the $2.7 mil represented nearly 25% of the total handle ($11.3 million) that was wagered on the entire card.
Knowing that players would come and bet with both hands today, I promoted heavily to my email listers that I would be putting together a suggested Pick Six play on today’s Premium Play Selections. Here’s how my original $144 ticket did:
3rd race–I spread and used four horses and got the winner, favorite FORTUNATE EVENT ($5.40). Not a great start, especially since I also used runner-up WHITE AURA at 8-1.
4th race–I “singled” favorite BRANDI’S STARLITE but she took early pressure and faded through the final furlong to finish third. Solid second choice MAMA LULA got the money on the class drop while making her first start for the red-hot Brian Koriner barn.
5th race–I used three in here and missed when longshot RIVAL ISLANDS pulled off the $31.60 upset. This was the “separator” race and, in hindsight, you can make a decent case for the winner. First, he had been gelded since his last start. Second, he showed speed when chasing stronger last time (exiting the same race as favorite LAUROLYMPIO) before eventually fading to last. However, that race had already produced three next-out winners, indicating that is was a very live heat.
 6th race–I “singled” RISEN RIVER and he got the money as the 3/2 favorite.
7th race–My ticket used two runners but after the scratch of RAMSGATE, we were left with a single of odds-on FAST PARADE, who made short work of his opponents at 2/5.
8th race-I used three in the race and got home with favorite TRIBAL PRINCESS.
So, four of six on a revised $72 ticket (after scratch), which, of course, gets us back a big, fat goose egg.
Two winners today for trainer Koriner, both ridden by Aaron Gryder, who is third in the jockey standings. Martin Pedroza also won a pair.
FAST PARADE was impressive in victory (his sixth in nine career starts), especially since he had shipped back and forth to Hong Kong since his last win in Canada. He did not run overseas because of some kind of medication snafu. His trainer, Peter Miller, has had an outstanding year based from the San Luis Rey Downs training center.
Breeders’ Cup has added three $1 million races to the menu while now making it a two-day event starting this year at Monmouth. I need to read up on the all the details, but my gut reaction is that this is a bad idea. Why dilute a great event by spreading it over two days? More on this later.
To view a Free Sample of today’s Premium Plays, click on the link below: Premium Plays for Jan. 10
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