Jan
13
Pitching a Shutout
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The most embarrassing thing as a public handicapper is pitching a shutout. Blanking for the day. Goose egg. Not managing to pick a top choice winner on the entire card. Definitely not a good feeling. In fact, a number of us make a bet at the beginning of the Del Mar meet to see who can go the longest without getting the infamous no-no.
Well, I lasted 12 days at Santa Anita before getting shut out today. Let’s take a look at how it happened, call it an anatomy of a bad day:
1st race–Picked AIR COMMANDER, who looked like a winner but got run down near the wire. OK, that happens. No excuse, second best.
2nd race–I tried TOPPER’S MOMENT (hammered down from bad 8-1 morning line). Thought she would make the lead and possibly control the pace. She didn’t but sat second in a good spot, came up empty at 1/4-pole, then “re-rallied” to be second over bad animal HAPPYHOUR ATTHEBRIG.
3rd race–I picked ROCKELLA over CHEYENNE QUEEN. The result was flip-flopped when ‘QUEEN ran down my top pick on the wire. That would be as close as I came to a winner on the card.
4th race–I liked SHEZBAD stretching out after finishing well in her sprint debut. Broke a cardinal rule of mine to not fall in love with a stretch-out horse after only one start. Gave up a winner when favorite BADOUTOO ran down her stablemate VOTSI on the line.
5th race–I thought WICKERSHAM was a better filly now that when she last competed at Santa Anita. She was getting a confident double jump in class from a top barn after a sharp win across town. She once again proved she hates this main track (now 0-for-7 at SA), so we’ll have to wait until Cushion Track to play her back. I took a stand against the winner BETTERSWEETMOMENT, who I thought would regress off the Knapp claim. Wrong again.
6th race–With an abundance of pace coming down the hill, I thought it might set up for late-running LARRY BY THE LAKE, who was trying turf for the first time. He raced between horses down the lane and didn’t fire as proven turf commodity BITTER BILL took heat and still came away at the end.
7th race–I knew I wanted to pick against Argentine import CARLA STRIPES (who would be overbet for low-percentage barn), so I tried SILVER HIGHLIGHT at a price. She was in the race early but stopped badly through the lane as track-loving RIVER SAVAGE pulled off the upset. Nice pick by Bob Mieszerski of the LA Times, who analyzed this race perfectly. By the way, ‘STRIPES looked fat as a cow on the track, so I don’t know if she will race herself into shape or if she is just overrated.
8th race–Tried new face PALM BREEZE for the hot Sadler-Gomez team to try to beat the obvious favorite REMEMBER MAGGIE. Gave up another winner here. I ignored the fact that ‘BREEZE had been a program scratch for a much higher claiming price on Nov. 15.
There you have it. Broken handicapping rules, ignoring vital information like a program scratch two months ago, trying to get cute in races where I should have taken the obvious.
Luckily they run nine more tomorrow.
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